The impact of global warming on the UK distribution of house longhorn beetle Hylotrupes bajulus (L)
P Oevering, A J Pitman
This paper reviews the effects of global warming on insect populations and distribution. The affects of global warming on the spread of Hylotrupes is predicted through a review of research related to the influence of temperature on its life-cycle and flight. Records of Hylotrupes distribution were obtained from published surveys, entomologists and museum collections and were plotted for the UK. The UKCIP98 model for climate change was then used to present the average maximum daily temperatures over the emergence period at present, and in the future. The model predicts a 3°C rise in annual temperature by the 2080's. This increase may enable mated females to fly on a greater number of days and over a greater area. The discussion highlights gaps in knowledge concerning the UK population that makes rate of spread difficult to predict at present.
Keywords: GLOBAL WARMING; INSECT POPULATION; INSECT DISTRIBUTION; HYLOTRUPES; UKCIP98; MODEL FOR CLIMATE CHANGE